Posted: Tuesday, 29 May 2007 11:21AM
Sweeny Blog: This is Not That 70's Show...5/29
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This is not 1978. Let me repeat that for all who think the ghost of Mike Torrez will turn the standings upside down and put the Yankees in their rightful place. This is NOT 1978.
To refresh everyone's memory, the 1978 Yankees trailed Boston by 14 games on July 19. They stormed back and beat the Red Sox in the famous one-game playoff at Fenway Park, delaying exorcism of The Curse for another 26 years.
Yet I hear at least one call every day on the radio station that suggests the Yankees did it in 1978, they can do it again this year. Let me explain in painful detail why that won't happen in 2007.
The 1978 Yankees, at the point of their largest deficit of 14 games, were 6 games over .500. That was a team playing okay, just not as well as those red-hot Sox were playing. These Yankees are 13 ½ games behind Boston after losing Memorial Day. They are 7 games under .500.
The 1978 Yankees featured virtually the same lineup of players that won the World Series the year before. Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada are the only ones in this lineup that remember what winning a World Series in New York is about (though Johnny Damon and Doug Mientkiewicz do have rings from the 2004 Red Sox).
The 1978 Yankees, after falling 14 games out, finished the season 53-21 and lost as many as 3 games in a row just once in that stretch. They left .500 behind for good after starting 7-8 and never lost more than 4 in a row even before that. And they had Ron Guidry who was winning games even when they were floundering (starting the season 13-1) and continued to be the stopper they needed (12-2 to the finish). This year's Yankees need their longest winning streak of the year just to get to .500 . And they don't have a starter with more than 3 wins.
Two words to tell you why you should thank your lucky stars this isn't 1978-Wild Card. The Yanks entered Memorial Day only 7 ½ back of Detroit for the extra playoff spot that didn't exist before 1995. However, this isn't the good news you'd expect it to be. Since 2001, the American League Wild Card Team has averaged 97 wins. To get to 97 wins the Yankees need to go 76-37, nearly 40 games over .500 the rest of the way.
Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Alex Rodriguez are all having terrific years so far. But the injuries to the pitchers hurt in April and the woeful offensive production has killed them in May. Johnny Damon may not be healthy enough all year to be the player the Yankees need. Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu can't get anything going. Robinson Cano is digging himself out, but still has a ways to go. Melky Cabrera is giving them nothing. They were supposed to be the Sultans of Swing, but the lack offense has this team in…you guessed it---dire straits.
You can talk to me all you about too many first basemen, overworked bullpen, no bench, no Bernie, blah, blah, blah. This team doesn't go anywhere if the everyday players don't start producing the way they are supposed to. I'm sure everybody cares and I'm sure everybody's trying hard. But that's not good enough right now. And I know it's not good enough to win 97 games.
Questions and comments to Yankees@wfan.com.
Thanks for reading.
Sweeny |
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