What’s it going to take to get Johan Santana? I spent all day Monday asking that question to several people around the game, scouts and executives from around the majors familiar with the Yankee system and here are some of the answers I got:
*Joba/Hughes/Kennedy: two of those three plus Melky Cabrera or Jose Tabata (19-year old outfielder, #2 prospect in the organization last winter behind Hughes). Another variation is one of the three pitchers, one of Cabrera or Tabata, plus 2 other prospects.
Let’s assume three things from here on out:
That every proposal includes Joba Chamberlain, who the Yankees probably won’t deal. So when I say “Hughes” just figure that Joba was the first answer and I’m omitting him because I don’t think he’s available.
That when I say “prospects” I don’t mean a couple of leftover pieces of junk, rather legitimate prospects.
That the Yankees would be given a window to negotiate an extension for Santana, who can be a free agent after next season.
Continuing then…
Hughes and Cano plus Austin Jackson (20-year old A-ball outfielder who had an eye-opening 2007).
Kennedy plus Cabrera plus Alan Horne (24-year old RH named Eastern League Pitcher of the Year at AA Trenton) plus an additional prospect.
Hughes and Kennedy plus Cabrera and Tabata.
Hughes and Kennedy plus Cabrera and Jackson.
Now, digest all of those ideas for a second and think about a few things.
First, Johan Santana won’t come cheap for several reasons, first and foremost being that he’s Johan Santana. Second, the Yankees are not the only horse in this race so they are not just bidding against themselves. As good as the Yankees system has become recently, the Red Sox and Dodgers still have more to offer and some feel the Mets do as well. Third, the Twins are not just going to give him away.
Think about that last one for a minute. Bill Smith was just named GM of the Twins and he’s not going to get fleeced in his first major move. He’s not going to trade the best pitcher in baseball for a bunch of kids in Double-A. He needs some form of proven talent to sell his fan base, already disgruntled when they let Torii Hunter go (which by the way, for that money was the right move regardless of his standing as the face of the organization). What the Twins get for Santana will have a ripple effect on the entire organization. This is a team that moves into a new stadium in 2010. You think the taxpayers will be excited about trading away a 28-year old two-time Cy Young Award winner for a couple of guys they never heard of? How they handle Santana will also have an effect on negotiations down the road with Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan.
If I were the Twins, I wouldn’t even trade Santana right now. I’d play the first 90-100 games next season with Santana as my number one and a healthy Francisco Liriano as my number two. If the rumored Matt Garza to Tampa Bay for Delmon Young trade goes through, you’ve replaced Hunter and you may be a contender again in the AL Central or at the very least for the Wild Card. Play out the season into late July, because if you have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs, an ace like Santana gives you a legitimate shot to get to the World Series. If at the end of the year you have to let Santana walk for a pair of draft choices, those picks could be turned into major league players much quicker these days thanks to the improved level of college play.
From the Yankee perspective, I have to make this trade nearly at any cost. They’ve already invested hundreds of millions of dollars in A-Rod, Posada, Jeter, Abreu, Matsui, Damon, Giambi, etc. If Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy are all part of the rotation next year you’re asking three guys who never started 30 games in a season at any level to do it in the rough and tumble AL East. To be fair, Santana’s career record against the AL East (not including the Yankees) is only 13-11 with a 3.54 ERA.
But this is the best pitcher in the game and I’ll take my chances with him every time. The Yankees have been aching for an ace and this isn’t trading for 40-year old Randy Johnson or signing 45-year old Roger Clemens. This isn’t throwing $40 million at Carl Pavano after one good year. This isn’t Jeff Weaver or Kevin Brown.
Next March Johan Santana turns 29 and, by the way, Chien-Ming Wang turns 28. You’re talking about two legitimate 20-win candidates under the age of 30. None of the World Series winning Yankee teams from 1996-2000 could make that claim. You can talk about youth movements all you want, but this counts. If you have to move two unproven arms to make this happen (and no matter what you may think every one of the Big 3 we’re talking about is still unproven), I can’t see why you wouldn’t do it.
And let’s not forget that you’re no longer King of the Jungle. The Red Sox have won two of the last four World Series and aren’t going away anytime soon. If Santana goes somewhere else you hurt your chances of competing against a more established rotation. If Santana ends up in Boston, you’re playing for the Wild Card from day one. Scared those prospects you trade away are going to turn into good players? Put away the gun and the mask. Trades for great players come at a cost. If you end up with a 29-year old Johan Santana locked up for the next 6 years, you end up with what you went looking for. If you’re not prepared to spend a little to get it, then you’re not playing fair.
Want to restock the farm system? Use the same philosophy that got the Yankees this bushel-full in the last two years. Pick top of the draft talent that slipped for various reasons and overpay to haul them in (Chamberlain, Kennedy, and 2007’s first-rounder Andrew Brackman all fall into that category). The Yankees have been drafting in the same position for a decade, but the shift in strategy has put them in this position, where the farm system is no longer full of more suspects than prospects. They’ve also drafted better in lower rounds, so this should continue as well.
The Santana Sweepstakes will heat up this week leading up to the Winter Meetings. It sounds as if there’s a better chance than not that he will be traded and all the teams are lining up. You’re not going to get this guy by offering up Matt DeSalvo and Tyler Clippard, so ante up. The Yankees are now in a high-stakes poker game. I say they go all in.
Thanks for reading. Send comments and questions to Yankees@wfan.com.
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If I were the Twins, I wouldn’t even trade Santana right now. I’d play the first 90-100 games next season with Santana as my number one and a healthy Francisco Liriano as my number two. If the rumored Matt Garza to Tampa Bay for Delmon Young trade goes through, you’ve replaced Hunter and you may be a contender again in the AL Central or at the very least for the Wild Card. Play out the season into late July, because if you have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs, an ace like Santana gives you a legitimate shot to get to the World Series. If at the end of the year you have to let Santana walk for a pair of draft choices, those picks could be turned into major league players much quicker these days thanks to the improved level of college play. 
