Eddie C. Blog: Breaking Down the Breakdown ...10/04
Well, how about that for a Phantastic Phinish!! Two 7 game leads since August 25 - prosperity be damned, let's just hand the division title over to the Phightin' Phils, and gift wrap it with a bow while we're at it. When you combine the amount of talent that the Mets possessed with the fact that the National League, as a whole, was down this year (to say the least) - just one 90-win team, Arizona, excluding Colorado which had an extra game - to not be in the playoffs is simply disgraceful. As good as this team thought they were or were supposed to be, the fact is they had one, count 'em, just one 5-game winning streak all season, and that didn't come until the beginning of September. But to go 5-9 against three sub-.500 teams in the final two weeks of the season (including an embarassing 1-6 at Shea) is utterly inexcusable. They deserved their fate.
So what went wrong? No home cookin' for one thing. Despite matching their road win total from last season (47), the Mets played just one game over .500 (41-40) at Shea in 2007. And that's just the beginning. Against the N.L. East, they were 12-24 at home! How was this team anywhere near first place in the first place. And with the division crown on the line coming down the stretch, the Mets dropped 9 of their last 10 in Flushing. Talk about flushing the title down the drain. Mind-boggling. On top of that, overall versus the division, the Mets were 35-37, two games under .500. Again, why was this team anywhere near where they were with those numbers.
Win any of the final 7 games against the Phillies, just one, and you're probably talking a different story. The Mets actually lost the final 8 games they played against the Phils dating back to July 1. And if you're looking for a turning point, go back to the Philly series at Shea starting September 14. The Mets had just finished winning 10 out of 12 (including 5 of 6 vs. Atlanta) and had a 6 1/2 lead on Philly. In the first game, Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer dueled, Glavine pitching well and into the 8th allowing just two runs. But Aaron Heilman's throwing error in the 10th led to an unearned run and a 3-2 Phils win. The next night, Pedro Martinez was especially sharp, giving up just one run, striking out 9, and leaving with a 3-1 lead. But Aaron Rowand's home run off Pedro Feliciano tied the game and the Phillies surged on for a 5-3 victory. The lead was down to 4 1/2 and the meltdown was on. Those two games in particular were killers. The last game of the series was a joke, but 6 Met errors and a Greg Dobbs grand slam later, it was another game off the lead and the collapse of collapses was well underway.
You can break the Mets season down into neat 54-game thirds. After the first 54, they were 35-19 and led the division by 3 1/2 games. Over the next 2/3, 108 games, they went 53-55, two games under .500. Utterly unacceptable. The 54 game point also marked the beginning of their worst stretch of the season, losing 13 of the next 16. But even after that mini-collapse, the Mets had lost only 2 games off their lead, still 1 1/2 up. That seemed to be the start of a false sense of security, we can play this bad yet we're still that much better than anyone else. One of G.M. Omar Minaya's beliefs is that he likes to have a mix of veterans and youngsters - older players teaching younger players how to win. Better get some different teachers. Mgr. Willie Randolph has tried to instill the killer instinct in this club since he arrived, but the simple fact is the Mets do not know how to close teams out, how to put the hammer down, how to make sure that no one is left standing to catch you from behind. The Mets had multiple opportunities to ensure that this year - and failed. Badly.
The Mets have to get younger in their starting rotation. Last year Pedro and El Duque both went down late. This year, El Duque, their best starter for two months, down once again. It's no coincidence that Duque's last start came on September 11, just before the great 5-12 fade began. Look around at the N.L. playoff teams - they all have an ace, and a fairly young ace, to front their rotations. Cole Hamels - Jeff Francis - Carlos Zambrano - Brandon Webb. Same thing in the American League - Beckett, Sabathia, Carmona, Lackey, Escobar, Wang. The Mets have to do likewise. How? I have three solutions:
get Johan Santana
get Johan Santana
get Johan Santana
If you noticed some repetition it's by design. If the Twins are going to deal Santana, the Mets have to convince them their best deal is in the off-season leading up to his walk year rather than accepting lesser value at the trading deadline during next season. And to do that, you have to overwhelm Minnesota, not just tease them. Pedro Martinez is back for the final year of his contract, and if what he showed at the end of this season is an indication of where he can and will be in 2008, that's a good start - and starter. If, and it's a big if, the Mets truly believe in 15 game winners John Maine and Oliver Perez, and also trust that Duaner Sanchez can return to his 2006 form (it's been a long layoff, folks), this is what I would do - send Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Aaron Heilman and Lastings Milledge to Minny for Santana. Kevin Mulvey (Villanova) seems to be coming fast, and the Mets took a couple of Pac-10 closers in the June draft - Eddie Kunz (Oregon State) and Brant Rustich (UCLA) - who are on the fast track. You have to give to get, and Santana stabilizes any rotation that you plunk him into. He and Pedro are also great hedges against any kind of losing streak becoming a long one.
I do know one thing. The Mets will be standing while watching the playoffs this year - it'll be too painful to sit after kicking themselves in the butt all day, watching the teams that made it while they didn't. We'll talk further. Enjoy.
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Win any of the final 7 games against the Phillies, just one, and you're probably talking a different story. The Mets actually lost the final 8 games they played against the Phils dating back to July 1. And if you're looking for a turning point, go back to the Philly series at Shea starting September 14. The Mets had just finished winning 10 out of 12 (including 5 of 6 vs. Atlanta) and had a 6 1/2 lead on Philly. In the first game, Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer dueled, Glavine pitching well and into the 8th allowing just two runs. But Aaron Heilman's throwing error in the 10th led to an unearned run and a 3-2 Phils win. The next night, Pedro Martinez was especially sharp, giving up just one run, striking out 9, and leaving with a 3-1 lead. But Aaron Rowand's home run off Pedro Feliciano tied the game and the Phillies surged on for a 5-3 victory. The lead was down to 4 1/2 and the meltdown was on. Those two games in particular were killers. The last game of the series was a joke, but 6 Met errors and a Greg Dobbs grand slam later, it was another game off the lead and the collapse of collapses was well underway.
